Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the near four-year conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Accounts of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
  • Trump says he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing four years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.

Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in the summer produced no concrete results.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Putin agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine later made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that pledge, saying that concluding the war is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Jeremy Lyons
Jeremy Lyons

A tech enthusiast and streaming expert with over a decade of experience in digital media and content creation.