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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although analysts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.